How Zac Efron, Greta Lee and More Actors With SAG-AFTRA Interim Agreements Have Oscar Benefits

The road to the Oscars looks bleaker than ever.

After the WGA finalized its deal with the studios earlier this month, the industry was surprised when the AMPTP announced it was suspending negotiations with SAG-AFTRA, which has been on strike since July.

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There’s no end in sight, but one thing is clear: Independent films could have a competitive advantage in the Oscar race. Independent film authors and actors can promote their projects through provisional agreements.

To read: diversity Awards Circuit for the latest Oscar predictions across all categories.

To receive a tentative agreement from SAG-AFTRA, a producer must operate independently of AMPTP entities and agree to the terms proposed by the guild in its negotiations. More than 100 interim agreements have been approved so far. Studios that are not part of the AMPTP, including A24, Lionsgate and Neon, are eligible, as are independently financed films.

The Oscar race featured five solid best picture bets from deep-pocketed studios – Apple’s “Killers of the Flower Moon,” Netflix’s “Maestro,” Searchlight Pictures’ “Poor Things” and Warner’s “Poor Things.” Bros. “Barbie” and Universal’s “Oppenheimer” — all the other outfits are vying to fill the five remaining spots.

“While everyone is being silenced, it would be foolish not to be as loud as possible,” says one pricing strategist diversity. “I’m excited to see how loud it will be when we come back because everyone will feel like some people got a head start.”

At the same time, “a tentative agreement doesn’t necessarily mean an actor will come out and promote his film,” says another publicity consultant. “The bigger the star, the more scrutiny they face when trying to get an Oscar nomination.”

Tentative agreements have been made for all of A24’s fall releases, particularly the three biggest awards contenders – Celine Song’s “Past Lives,” Jonathan Glazer’s “The Zone of Interest” and Sean Durkin’s “The Iron Claw.” The indie studio is also directing the horror comedy “Dream Scenario,” starring Nicolas Cage.

Coincidentally, The Zone of Interest’s Sandra Hülser also stars in Anatomy of a Fall, distributed by Neon. The Palme d’Or winner was not selected as France’s international entry, but the studio still plans to push forward with a comprehensive awards campaign.

Neon also features Hollywood veteran Michael Mann and his biopic “Ferrari,” starring Academy favorites Adam Driver and Penélope Cruz. The visionary filmmaker only received a single Oscar nomination as a director for “The Insider” (1999). Given the author’s illustrious career, the management department may feel compelled to invite him back after such a long break.

Neon also acquired “Origin” from writer-director Ava DuVernay, but a tentative deal is still pending. Once the media has access to the stunning work of star Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor and DuVernay, both actress and director will be in an even better position to secure a place in the history books. Only one black woman has won lead actress (Halle Berry for 2001’s “Monster’s Ball”), and a black woman has yet to be nominated for directing.

Although Lionsgate is not a member of the AMPTP, there is no confirmation or record that its films have applied for agreements. “Are you there, God? Kelly Fremon Craig’s “It’s Me, Margaret” is a critical darling, but don’t expect its stars to draw attention to the Judy Blume adaptation.

When the pandemic shut down the global economy in 2020, we may have witnessed one of the “purest” Oscar lineups in recent memory. Talent and studios were unable to accommodate tastemakers or bombard the public with advertising. Instead, industry voters were stuck at home with no choice but to watch the films available to them. Perhaps that’s why the names reflected a more balanced distribution of preferences between the establishment (“Mank”), the young and diverse members (“Judas and the Black Messiah”) and the international pockets (“The Father”).

If the strike continues without stars in the constituency, voters could once again be on their own. Maybe that’s not so bad?

Read the latest forecast updates below.

best picture
“American Fiction” (MGM)
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
“The Holdovers” (focus features)
“The Iron Claw” (A24)
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
“Maestro” (Netflix)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
“Origin” (neon)
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
“The Interest Zone” (A24)

director
Greta Gerwig – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Yorgos Lanthimos – “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Christopher Nolan – “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Alexander Payne – “The Holdovers” (focus contributions)
Martin Scorsese – “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)

Best actor
Bradley Cooper – “Maestro” (Netflix)
Leonardo DiCaprio – “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Colman Domingo – “Rustin” (Netflix)
Cillian Murphy – “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Jeffrey Wright – “American Fiction” (MGM)

Best Actress
Lily Gladstone – “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Sandra Hülser – “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)
Carey Mulligan – “Maestro” (Netflix)
Margot Robbie – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Emma Stone – “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)

supporting cast
Willem Dafoe – “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Robert DeNiro – “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Robert Downey Jr. – “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Ryan Gosling – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Mark Ruffalo – “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)

supporting actress
Emily Blunt – “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
America Ferrera – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Julianne Moore – “May December” (Netflix)
Cara Jade Myers – “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Da’Vine Joy Randolph – “The Holdovers” (Focus Posts)

Original script
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
“The Holdovers” (focus features)
“The Iron Claw” (A24)
“Maestro” (Netflix)
“Past Lives” (A24)

Adapted script
“American Fiction” (MGM)
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
“The Interest Zone” (A24)

Animated feature
“The Boy and the Heron” (GKids)
“Elemental” (Pixar)
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
“Trolls Band Together” (DreamWorks Animation)
“Wish” (Walt Disney Pictures)

Product design
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
“Maestro” (Netflix)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)

cinematography
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
“Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
“Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“The Interest Zone” (A24)

Costume design
“Are you there, God? It’s me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
“Maestro” (Netflix)
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)

cut
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
“The Holdovers” (focus features)
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
“Maestro” (Netflix)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)

Make-up and hair styling
“Ferrari” (neon)
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios)
“The Iron Claw” (A24)
“Maestro” (Netflix)
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)

sound
“Ferrari” (neon)
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
“Maestro” (Netflix)
“Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)

Visual effects
“Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.)
“The Creator” (20th Century Studios)
“The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)

Original score
“American Fiction” (MGM)
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
“Origin” (neon)
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)

Original song
“What Was I Created for?” from “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
“The Fire Inside” from “Flamin’ Hot” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)
“I Am” from “Origin” (Neon)
“Better Place” from “Trolls Band Together” (DreamWorks Animation)
“This Wish” from “Wish” (Walt Disney Pictures)

documentary
“20 Days in Mariupol” (PBS)
“American Symphony” (Netflix)
“Anselm” (Janus/Sideshow)
“Little Richard: I Am Everything” (Magnolia Pictures)
“They Shot the Piano Player” (Sony Pictures Classics)

International feature
“Perfect Days” from Japan (neon)
“The Taste of Things” from France (IFC Films)
“The Teachers’ Lounge” from Germany (Sony Pictures Classics)
“The Peasants” from Poland (Sony Pictures Classics)
“The Zone of Interest” from Great Britain (A24)

Animated short film
“Ashkaska” (distribution to be announced)
“The Old Young Crow” (distribution to be announced
“Once Upon a Time in the Studio” (Walt Disney Pictures)
“Peter and the Wolf” (HBO)
“Much better” (distribution to be announced)

Documentary short
“Between Earth and Heaven” (POV shorts)
“Camp Courage” (Netflix)
“Crucial Vote” (The New Yorker)
“The Last Repair Shop” (Searchlight Pictures)
“A Tattoo on My Brain” (MTV Documentaries)

Live-action short film
“The After” (Netflix)
“Shadow Brother Sunday” (distribution to be announced)
“The Shepherd” (Walt Disney Pictures)
“Take Me Home” (distribution to be announced)
“Troy” (The New Yorker)

Tracking the Top 4 Nomination Leaders (Film)

1. “Killers of the Flower Moon” – 13

2. “Oppenheimer” – 12

3. “Barbie” – 10

4. “Maestro” and “Poor Things” – 9

Tracking the Top 4 Nomination Leaders (Studios)

1. Apple Original Movies – December 15th

2. Netflix – 14

3. Universal Images – 12

4. Searchlight Pictures and Warner Bros. – 11

Oscar Prediction Categories

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING CAST | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCT DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | CUT | MAKEUP & HAIR STYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY | INTERNATIONAL FEATURES | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

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