diversity The Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content year-round and includes: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscar, Emmy, Grammy and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by diversity Senior Awards Editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current state of the race and do not reflect the personal preferences of individual participants. As other formal (and informal) polls indicate, contests are fluid and subject to change based on excitement and events. The forecasts are updated every Thursday.
Visit the forecast pages for the respective ceremonies using the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | Grammys | TONYS
Predictions for the Oscars 2023:
Weekly Commentary (updated September 5, 2023): Searchlight Pictures, the indie studio that has won five best picture awards over the past 15 years – “Slumdog Millionaire” (2008), “12 Years a Slave” (2013), “Birdman” (2014), ” The Shape of Water”. (2017) and Nomadland (2020) – has what it takes to add a sixth with Yorgos Lanthimos’ sci-fi comedy Poor Things.
“Sex is back,” Telluride Film Festival executive director Julie Huntsinger told a packed house of festival-goers as they watched Lanthimos’ latest work. It was the only movie I saw in Colorado that felt like a potential winner.
With a Best Picture and Best Actress nomination, actress and producer Emma Stone would be another woman in the running for double recognition this year. Others include Natalie Portman (“May December”) and Margot Robbie (“Barbie”). Only one woman was nominated for both categories in the same year, Frances McDormand for “Nomadland” (2020), which won both.
Read: diversity Awards Circuit for the latest Oscar predictions across all categories.
Aside from Poor Things, other films could also take their cues from Telluride. Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers and Jeff Nichols’ The Bikeriders feel like films the conventional Hollywood establishment could easily outperform.
A24’s The Zone of Interest, Neon’s Anatomy of a Fall and IFC/Sapan Studios’ The Taste of Things are the three non-English language titles looking to prove they deserve more than just a nomination for the best international feature film can be.
Feel-good stories like Netflix’s “Rustin” could go a long way with the help of its leading man, Colman Domingo.
There are some movies that might face some hurdles due to different reasons. Amazon MGM’s “Saltburn” will depend heavily on a passionate vote for Emerald Fennell and the technical categories, while Netflix’s “Nyad” will need to focus on making sure its stars Annette Bening and Jodie Foster can stay in the discussion despite an onslaught of competitors can stay.
It is also worth noting that documentaries are usually critically acclaimed, but since the category was expanded in 2009, they have failed to achieve a top category nomination. Matthew Heineman’s “American Symphony” is more than worthy of being the premiere when it goes into distribution and is released this year with a focused awards campaign.
The submission deadline for general categories is November 18, 2023. Preliminary voting on the shortlists begins December 18, with results announced December 21. Voting period for official nominations is January 11-16, 2024 Announcement on January 23.
The 96th Academy Awards will take place on Sunday March 10th.
The listed producer information is not final and is subject to change. The academy ultimately determines the official nominees.
And the expected nominees are:
- “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Emma Thomas, Charles Roven, and Christopher Nolan
- “Poor things” (searchlight images)
Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos, and Emma Stone
- “Killer of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Dan Friedkin, Martin Scorsese, Bradley Thomas, Daniel Lupi
- “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
David Heyman, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley, Robbie Brenner
- “The Leftovers” (focus functions)
Mark Johnson, Bill Block, David Hemingson
- “past lives” (A24)
David Hinojosa, Pamela Koffler, and Christine Vachon
- “The Zone of Interest” (A24)
Ewa Puszczynska, James Wilson
- “maestro” (Netflix)
Fred Berner, Bradley Cooper, Amy Durning, Kristie Macosko Krieger, Martin Scorsese, Steven Spielberg
- “Air” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Ben Affleck, Madison Ainley, Jason Michael Berman, Matt Damon, David Ellison, Peter Guber, Jeff Robinov, Jesse Sisgold, Jon Weinbach
- “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
Avi Arad, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Amy Pascal, and Christina Steinberg
next in line
- “salt burn” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Emerald Fennell, Josey McNamara, Tom Ackerley, Margot Robbie
- “Ferrari” (neon)
Monika Bacardi, Thomas Hayslip, Andrea Iervolino, John Lesher, Michael Mann, Laura Rister, Thorsten Schumacher, Lars Sylvest, PJ van Sandwijk, Gareth West
- “The bike riders” (20th Century Studios)
Sarah Green, Brian Kavanaugh-Jones, Arnon Milchan
- “The colour purple” (Warner Bros.)
Quincy Jones, Scott Sanders, Steven Spielberg, Oprah Winfrey
- “May December” (Netflix)
Jessica Elbaum, Will Ferrell, Grant S Johnson, Pamela Koffler, Tyler W Konney, Sophie Mas, Natalie Portman, Christine Vachon
- “Rustin” (Netflix)
Bruce Cohen, Tonia Davis
- “All of us strangers” (searchlight images)
Graham Broadbent, Peter Czernin, and Sarah Harvey
- “Origin” (neon)
Ava DuVerny, Paul Garnes
- “Anatomy of a fall” (neon)
Marie-Ange Luciani, David Thion
- “Freud’s last session” (Sony Pictures Classics) **
Alan Greisman, Hannah Leader, Rick Nicita, Robert Stillman, Meg Thomson
More first class options
- “stupid money” (Sony Pictures)
- “American fiction” (MGM)
- “The Iron Claw” (A24)
- “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
- “fair play” (Netflix)
- “blackberry” (IFC Films)
- “The killer” (Netflix)
- “The funeral” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- “Wish” (Walt Disney Pictures)
- “are you there god it’s me margaret” (Lionsgate)
Even in a fight
- “nyad” (Netflix)
- “Priscilla” (A24)
- “The boys in the boat” (MGM)
- “fingernails” (Apple Original Films)
- “she came to me” (Vertical Conversation)
- “asteroid city” (focus functions)
- “A little prayer” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- “The Teachers’ Lounge” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- “the taste of things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studio)
- “American Symphony” (No US distribution)
All Eligible Titles (alphabetized by studio)**
Category winner 2022: “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24) – Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang (Producers)
** indicates an unconfirmed release date in 2023 or could advertise in the major or minor categories. All release dates are subject to change.
Categories for Oscar predictions
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTORS | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FUNCTION | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | TONE | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | SHORT DOCUMENTARY | LIVE ACTION SHORT
About the Oscars
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, are Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). 17 branches are represented among the nearly 10,000 members. The branches are Actors, Staff, Casting Directors, Cinematographers, Costume Designers, Directors, Documentarians, Executives, Film Editors, Makeup and Hair Stylists, Marketing and Public Relations, Total Members, Total Members (Artist Representatives), Music, Producers, Production Design, Short Films and game animation, sound, visual effects and authors.
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