Tesla Investor Day: What’s coming up at Elon Musk’s big “Masterplan 3” party

All eyes go up Tesla (TSLA) Wednesday when the global EV giant holds its investor day, with the event scheduled to start at market close. CEO Elon Musk plans to unveil his “Master Plan 3” with analysts predicting announcements including a new Tesla EV platform, confirmation of a proposed factory in Mexico, and potential Tesla Model 3 upgrades.

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The event, held at the Tesla factory in Austin, Texas, will begin with keynote presentations before moving on to a Q&A segment where analysts expect a big announcement of a new cheaper EV platform, updates on the Cybertruck, and other news.

Tesla may also confirm a long-rumored “Project Highland” upgrade to the Model 3. Reuters reported Wednesday that an upgraded Model 3 focusing on lower production costs will go into production at the company’s Shanghai plant in September. According to Reuters, Tesla is also updating the Model Y with interior and exterior changes with a production target for 2024.

“This year, watch out for the Gen 3 platform, which is key to growth as it will enable lower-cost EVs that should increase volume as demand lags and competition increases,” wrote Orwa Mohamad, analyst at Third Bridge, late Tuesday.

Mexico’s President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador also announced Tesla’s plans to build a manufacturing facility in Monterrey on Tuesday. More details will be released Wednesday, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Tesla has repeatedly teased an electric vehicle that would be priced around the $25,000 mark. CFO Zachary Kirkhorn said during the fourth-quarter earnings call that the “next-generation vehicle platform” is a priority. This could mean that the cheaper, elusive Tesla Model 2 could go public on March 1.

Tesla stock performance

TSLA shares rose 2.4% to 200.79 during market trading on Wednesday. Tesla shares fell 0.9% on Tuesday to 205.71 after rising 5.5% on Monday. Equities arguably have a cup and handle pattern going back to early November (or a handle that is too low on a September basis). That would suggest a buy point of 217.75.

However, Tesla stock could face potential resistance at its 200-day moving average, which currently sits just above 221.

Tesla stock has doubled since its bear market low of 0f 101.81 on Jan 6th. Much of this reflects the excitement among Tesla investors. This follows a historical pattern of TSLA shares rising ahead of similar events. In 2016, Tesla stock was up 22% for a month before Musk announced his second “master plan” on July 20, 2016.

“The biggest risk for Tesla is to refresh its lineup and rely less on the Model 3 and Model Y for growth. The rumored $25,000 car would give Tesla a huge boost as more competition comes from the economy segment, but cost, execution and timing are big question marks,” Mohamad added Tuesday.

Tesla Investor Day and master plan number 3

Tesla’s first master plan, released in August 2006, outlined the company’s goal to build a wide range of electric vehicles. Ten years later, Musk unveiled his second “master plan.” The focus was on self-driving ability and battery storage systems.

According to Musk, his “Master Plan 3” is a “pathway to a fully sustainable energy future for the planet.”

However, the billionaire CEO has largely spoken out on details. Musk said Wednesday March 1 will be an “in the ground” event for investors. His comments came during the unveiling of plans for a new Tesla Engineering HQ in Palo Alto.

Musk added that March 1 will be about “explaining how we are moving towards a fully sustainable energy future and that people should have optimism and hope for the future.”

Futures Fall After Market Closes Badly; Tesla is getting ready for Investor Day

Artificial intelligence could also be on the agenda, as Musk tweeted Tuesday that he would be working on an “anti-wake” AI chatbot. Tesla could discuss its plans to expand the Nevada Gigafactory to manufacture semi trucks and 4680 battery cells.

The EV giant is likely to unveil HW4.0, the latest driver assistance hardware including better chips, more cameras and the return of radar. Musk said that as of 2016, all Tesla electric vehicles will be “hardware-enabled” for full autonomous driving.

It is also believed that Tesla will discuss future factory expansions along with growth in the solar and energy storage businesses. Wall Street also forecasts announcements on measures to secure commodities – including lithium.

Lithium supply control

Another potential initiative is a possible bid for Sigma Lithium (SGML), according to Bloomberg. Sigma Lithium has no sales but is poised to begin commercial production at its Brazil site in April. SGML shares rose 16% on Tuesday’s news.

Tesla has already made progress building a lithium processing facility in Texas that will be the first of its kind in the United States. Tesla has confirmed plans to invest $365 million in the lithium facility. The company has announced that commercial production could begin by the end of 2024.

TSLA shares rank fourth among IBDs Industry group of automobile manufacturers. Tesla stock has a Composite Rating of 73 out of 99. The stock also has a Relative Strength Rating of 27. The EPS rating is 99.

Please follow Kit Norton on Twitter @KitNorton for more coverage.

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